敦化信息网

摘要 本文通过总结前人关于地质灾害预报预警的研究,选取敦化地区近10年来发生灾害的泥石流沟为例,基于功效系数法,建立了一套地质环境条件与气象因素相耦合的泥石流预报预警流程,并基于GIS技术,运用C#和VB语言编码,设计开发了敦化典型泥石流地质灾害自动预警系统。系统以地质环境条件、前期有效降雨量和当日降雨量为综合评价对象,能较准确预测泥石流发生概率,预报精度较高;多线程、XML和组件式软件开发等技术的应用,提高了系统自动预警的速度,增强了系统的灵活性、重用性和开放性,便于维护。 This paper summarizes the previous research on geological disasters, choses the debris flow that happened in recent 10 years of Dunhua as experimental data, proposes a method for forecasting and warning of debris flows about geological environment condition and meteorological factors based on the efficacy coefficient method, and using C# and VB to code,designes and developes an automatic warning system for typical debris flows of Dunhua city based on GIS. The system,with the geological environment condition, antecedent effective rainfall and the daily rainfall as the comprehensive evaluation object, can objectively forecast the debris flow occurrence probability, with high prediction accuracy. Based on the multi thread technology, XML technology and component technology, it improves the speed of automatic warning system, increases flexibility, reusability and openness of the system, and is easy to maintain.